This can lead to huge electric fields building up in the atmosphere and on the surface of the Earth. This can disable electricity grids, telecommunications networks, GPS and electrical and electronic systems aboard aircraft. To make matters worse, the energy deposited by charged particles in digital devices could impede their operation. In this latest research, Muscheler and colleagues looked for evidence of intense solar storms in two ice cores taken from the Greenland ice sheet. When solar protons collide with molecules in the atmosphere, cosmogenic nuclei such as beryllium and carbon are produced.
These isotopes become trapped in the ice sheet and measurements of their abundances can be used to calculate the intensity of solar protons in the atmosphere at the time of deposition. Similar peaks are associated with intense solar storms believed to have occurred more recently in the years and A peak in the abundance of chlorine — another isotope produced by solar protons — was also spotted in the GRIP data.
Furthermore, the ancient storm was ten times more intense than any solar storm that has occurred over the past 70 years — including storms that have disrupted electricity grids and telecommunications. Although such storms are rare, the discovery of a third event suggests that they could be much more common than previously thought. Muscheler believes that there should be a reassessment of the threat and calls for a greater awareness of how vulnerable society is to disruption by solar storms.
The research is described in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. Browse all. However it is unlikely that the people in charge would have the sense or courage to do this. McGraw-Edison auto-reclosers in fact. They are pretty good and react very quickly and restore power when safe to do so.
Keep in mind, too, that the transformers would blow even if the power was off. As I understand it, the problem is inductance on long transmission lines.
New Studies Warn of Cataclysmic Solar Superstorms - Scientific American
Taking down the grid would not prevent damage to the grid, blown transformers, and fried electronics to anything connected to it. Lack of practice…. This threat has long been an issue in military circles as well as various others sources even NASA in and lots of science writers for some time. However, the current administration seems to be fully aware of the danger.
A solar event would, as some noted, be the lesser evil but no one really knows without a real life test over a wide ares. Might actually be a good experience for current generations pun. Obviously we usually had many large transformers on the entire system of a particular spec. In a post-Carrington event world, there may not be any electricity to run the transformer-building factories, nor electrically-pumped gasoline to allow the workers to get to work if cars are even running , nor fuel for trucks to get the new transformers into the field.
I consider that the risk is real enough that I keep cash aside and add to it continually. I also keep an old valve type radio and a cable telephone connected to the copper network. If I lived in an elevated site I would also have a ham radio. They are the best backup. I also need a diesel generator to keep freezers running e. Forget the author. California budded off as a separate state. A cup of coffee in Rome cost the same as a house in USA.
What could one do on a personal level beyond what Michael Carter suggests? Laptop, smartphone etc?
One of the strongest known solar storms blasted Earth in 660 B.C.
Would an aluminium foil bag work, and would it need to be earthed? Maybe someone could give a comment. Read up on what happened in the UK from a single lightning hit, about a month all so ago. Biggest danger is from a civil unrest winch might follow some days later. Since there will be few hours warning, disconnect everything, head for the nearest international airport and take a flight to any of the countries in the equatorial region, where the electric power and fuel supplies would be very little or not affected at all. Venezuela, Somalia etc?
And how effective is a Faraday Cage? This is not correct. The previous solar minimum in was clearly deeper.
Almost a year ago. This solar minimum will not go much deeper and will be less deep than the previous one.
- CalHouse II - Fort Sacramento.
- Love&Darkness: Vol. I?
- My Struggle with the Civil Law Section at the University of Ottawa; 2005 - 2013..
This is a safe bet. There are also forecasts that solar cycle 25 will be more active than SC24, and from the same people that correctly predicted SC It is a pity to devalue a nice historic article about the Carrington event starting with inaccuracies about the present and an unlikely prediction about the future. The data is correct.
Simply the minimum has begun in and is still ongoing. Cycle 24 is not finished and is weaker than cycle 23, will be much longer and the minimum longer than that of Your data is incomplete and scarce in support of your conclusions. The official data and the majority of forecasts confirm the solar cycle 25 of lower intensity than that of the solar cycle You are wrong.
The smoothed monthly sunspot number, the criterion to define solar maximum and minimum, reached a value of 2. This minimum it is flattening at 5. It is likely that it will be some months later, but not much later. Wrong again on that.
This prediction is now given in the scale of sunspot number Version 2. Therefore, solar cycle 25 will be similar to cycle 24, which peaked at in April Given the previous minimum in December , this thus corresponds to a duration for cycle 24 between This thus also means that the activity is expected to decline further over the coming months.
Cycle 24 is not finished, and the solar minimum is just beginning. It will fall again, cycle 24 is longer weak, even the minimum. For all we know it could have already taken place. The only thing we know for sure is that it did not take place before March You seem to be convinced that solar minimum has been reached.
But Where is the evidence? The smoothed sunspot number dropped to 5. International sunspot number: June 1. Needs to climb to 9. Very possible, but also possible there will be no more sunspots this month. See June, July, August. If no more spots in September, smoothed falls to 4. Last month, the solar minimum candidate at solen.
Unless we get some spots in the remainder of September, it will slip to April. What makes your opinion more authoritative than others? No, I am not. The solar minimum can only be seen in the rear view mirror and most people are looking forward. Same situation in , but the solar minimum was in Sunspots during the first six months of were essentially zero. This figure shows SC compared to SC, , , using a faster smoothing 9 months instead of It uses data up to July available in August.
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The range of dates for the SC minimum that would fit this group goes to Sep From March to September there are still 6 opportunities for the solar minimum to be established maintaining the analogy. Five of them in the past. Being flat for 9 months is more consistent with having reached the minimum than with still decreasing solar activity.
Very likely to slip to April, and perhaps to May, but plenty of opportunities for the solar minimum to have already happened. Unlike most people I base my opinions on a study of the evidence. I have studied every solar minimum in the record, and I have studied the cyclical aspects of solar activity.
You appear to have a very superficial understanding of the solar cycle. We know that the solar minimum has taken place about months later, sometimes even more as it happened in I make an effort to explain we are not going into a GSM because a lot of people are bought into that baseless idea out of rejection for AGW. I have studied the distribution of every GSM for the past 11, years which is a lot more than those proposing a GSM have done. On top of that I have studied solar activity for the past years.
It is absurd to think that we are entering a GSM. Be rational. You do have me on one point though, I havent studied solar cycles for years as you claim, or do you mean to say you have studied data collected over years. As I have said of your remarks in the past, you dismiss zharkovas work out of hand, you dismiss SM GSM as finished ,minor,no evidence, you are really sounding like a global warmest.
As of today we are days for the year without sunspots, this is on track to being less than the previous year,unless we have a relatively huge increase in sun spots,to say the solar cycle has reached and surpassed is minimum is ridiculous. That is irrelevant.
Tracking the number of spotless days will not tell you when the solar minimum takes place. That is also irrelevant. The solar minimum is not determined based on calendar years. It is done by running a centered month moving average where the first and last month count half. He believes this cycle change will lead to the severe cooling down of the earth.